Is it too early to worry about Tiger or Phil?

Golf Betting Lines

01/30/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Using a 'huge' sample size of three combined events, what can we make of the starts by Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson?

Woods teed it up on the European Tour this week instead of playing the Farmers Insurance Open, an event he has won six times. Meanwhile, Mickelson did play the Farmers, but was only around for two rounds.

Woods entered the final round tied for the lead with England's Robert Rock but managed just an even-par 72 to share third place behind Rock.

The former world No. 1 gears his season's around the four majors, so you can't be overly alarmed that he lost to some guy most golf fans hardly even know.

At the Abu Dhabi Championship, Woods hit 50-percent of fairways, just over 72- percent of greens in regulation and averaged 29.25 putts per round.

In his final round however, Woods hit just two fairways and six greens in regulation. The precision Woods needs to win just wasn't there on the final day, yet he remained upbeat despite the loss.

"I felt just a touch off," Woods said afterwards. "Since Australia, my stroke- play events, I've been doing pretty good. I just need to keep getting more consistent. Today, I putted beautifully, but didn't give myself enough looks."

Woods was right there in his second straight official event (Australian Open and Abu Dhabi Championship), but ended in third place both times. Some say he's back, I'll agree to that when he wins again, and knowing Tiger, he likely wouldn't agree with that assessment until he wins a major.

And then there was Phil the thrill.

Mickelson has shot in the 60s in four of his six rounds, but didn't contend in either of the two events he has played.

In the main statistical categories, Mickelson ranks in the top-50 in just one - birdie average. He is 69th in driving accuracy and 79th in greens in regulation.

What strikes me about his share of 49th at the Humana Challenge and his missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open was his poor opening rounds

At the Humana, which is one of the biggest birdie-fests on tour, Mickelson stumbled to a two-over 74. Then on the more difficult South Course at Torrey Pines, Mickelson had seven bogeys en route to a five-over 77.

Some commentators on the Golf Channel stated that Phil is playing his way into shape. I'll respectfully disagree.

In the 13 of the 18 years he has won on tour, Mickelson won an early-season event in either California or Arizona. Of his 39 careers victories, 16 have come in early season West Coast tournaments.

Since he joined the tour in 1992, Mickelson never went more than two straight years without a West Coast win at the start of the season until 2009. That year he won the Northern Trust Open, but he hasn't won out west since.

He has four titles since that win at the Northern Trust, and the only one that came after April was the 2009 Tour Championship.

Mickelson could be battling to find the right medication for his arthritis, but more likely he's just off to a slow start.

The eye-ball test between Mickelson and Woods shows that Woods is closer to winning, but that could change in an instant.

Mickelson will play one of his favorite events this week in Phoenix. If he plays poorly there, then there will be cause for concern. If he contends, the first two events were just a mirage.

One thing is certain, the sooner these two get back to winning, the sooner fans will realize the golf season is underway. Let's hope that realization comes before the tour heads to Augusta National the first week of April.

THE COMEBACK KID

Brandt Snedeker is both lucky and good. He earned his third PGA Tour title on Sunday and pushed his PGA Tour playoff record to 2-0.

Snedeker hasn't just won three times, he has rallied for all three of those wins. He has erased deficits of four, six and eight strokes.

The math may show he was seven behind Kyle Stanley to start Sunday's final round, but Snedeker was eight back after he birdied the third, while Stanley birdies Nos. 1 and 2.

In his three wins, Snedeker has closed with rounds of 63, 64 and 65. He needed some help on Sunday as Stanley faltered to a triple-bogey on the final hole of regulation to force the playoff.

Once Stanley opened the door, Snedeker gladly stepped through and picked up the victory.

Some might argue that Snedeker didn't knock off any big names in his three wins, but that wouldn't be correct. His playoff win last year at The Heritage was over then world No. 1 Luke Donald. The Englishman lost that title briefly after falling in this playoff, but he has had a stranglehold on the top spot for 35 straight weeks now.

Snedeker had seven top-10s last year and is off to a fast start this year with top-eight finishes in his two starts despite coming off hip surgery in the offseason.

What will this quick start lead to? A major title, a spot on the USA Ryder Cup team? Only time and his health will tell.

MINI-TIDBITS

- Woods hasn't strung together four sub-pars rounds since the 2010 Masters, a span of 25 stroke-play tournaments.

- Lydia Ko became the youngest winner of a professional golf event on Sunday when she won a women's event in Australia. The 14-year-old Ko beat Becky Morgan by four strokes. Ryo Ishikawa, then 15, and Amy Yang, then 16, held the previous records for youngest winners in male and female events.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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